关键词: 业务扩散模型, 电信运营商, 企业成长理论, 增长曲线

Abstract: This article uses Bass model to forecast communications development in China. There are many differences between the assumptions of the traditional Bass model and reality of telecom business. In this sense, this article modifies the traditional Bass model based on the analysis of the process of communication development in China. The validity of the modified model is proved by the fixed-line business data. At the same time, the economic significance of the model parameters is much clearer. The modified model provides theoretical basis for communications development forecasting.

Key words: Bassmodel, telecomcarrier, growththeory, growthcurve