北京邮电大学学报(社科版) ›› 2018, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (4): 55-63.doi: 1019722/jcnki1008-772920180109

• 经济与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

产业结构、收入差距与中等收入陷阱

  

  1. 武汉理工大学 经济学院,湖北 武汉430070
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-14 出版日期:2018-08-30

Industrial Structure, Income Gap and Middle Income Trap


  1. School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
  • Received:2018-05-14 Online:2018-08-30

摘要: 随着中国经济的不断发展,经济新常态出现,如何跨越中等收入陷阱、实现中华民族伟大复兴成为我国亟待解决的经济难题。本文通过构建VAR(Vector Autoregression)模型实证分析行业收入差距、产业结构影响跨越中等收入陷阱的机理和机制,并将行业收入差距作为中介变量,探究其在产业结构影响跨越中等收入陷阱过程中的中介效应。实证结果表明:收入差距在短期内会刺激经济增长,但长期不利于经济持续向高水平发展,不利于我国跨越中等收入陷阱;产业结构升级是促进经济增长的一大动力,但过快过大比例发展第三产业会带来产业结构失衡等一系列负效应。因此,应系统考虑产业结构的合理化、高级化,加强产业结构优化战略与收入分配政策的联动关系,发挥两者的协同效应,助力跨越中等收入陷阱。

关键词: 行业收入差距, 产业结构升级, 中等收入陷阱

Abstract: Through 40 years of reform and opening-up, China has achieved vigorous development and transformed from a low-income country to a medium and high income country Along with the fast development of economy and emergence of new normal of economy, how to avoid falling into the middle income trap so as to achieve the great renewal of the Chinese nation has become an urgent problem How the industry income gap and industrial structure help avoid falling into the middle income trap is empirically analyzed with VAR model as the tool Besides, the mediating effect of industry income gap is explored in the process in which the industrial structure has an impact on avoiding falling into the middle income trap The empirical results show that the income gap spurs economic growth in the short term However, it is not conducive to the sustainable economic development and cannot help avoid falling into the middle income trap in the long term What′s more, upgrading of industrial structure can effectively promote economic growth, whereas the overdevelopment of the tertiary industry will make the industrial structure unbalanced Therefore, industrial structure should be designed in a rational and optimal way and the synergistic relationship between industrial structure optimization strategy and income distribution policy should be strengthened so as to avoid falling into the middle income trap

Key words:  industry income gap, upgrading of industrial structure, middle income trap

中图分类号: