Acta Metallurgica Sinica(English letters)

• 经济探索 • 上一篇    下一篇

企业财务困境预警模型分析

宋遂周,汪彤   

  1. 中央民族大学 管理学院
  • 收稿日期:2009-03-04 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-06-30

ModelingPrewarningofFinancialDistressbytheLogitModel

SONG Suizhou,WANG Tong   

  1. School of Management,Central University for Nationalities
  • Received:2009-03-04 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-06-30

摘要: 借鉴国内外已经比较成熟的研究成果,将中国上市公司因财务状况异常而被特别处理(ST)作为企业陷入财务困境的标志,采用主成分分析方法确定模型变量,并利用Logit回归建立财务困境预警模型;然后用财务困境企业样本数据进行分析,并与财务正常企业的数据进行比较。分析结论表明,财务指标包含了预测财务困境的有用信息。

关键词: 财务困境, 判别分析, Logit回归, 上市公司

Abstract: Following the customary research results abroad, this article takes public listed enterprises that have been marked ST due to abnormal financial situation as enterprises in financial distress The principal component analysis is employed to identify model variants and modeling prewarning of financial distress by the Logit model Sample data of enterprises in financial distress are analyzed and compared with those in normal financial operation It is conclude that financial indicators are informative in forecasting financial distress

Key words: financialdistress, multivariatediscriminationanalysis, Logitregression, companieslistedinChinastockmarket

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