关键词: 理性预期, 地产波动, 宏观调控

Abstract:

Under the condition of information lacking or incompleteness, there exists internal interaction mechnism between expectation and the fluctution of real estate.An empirical analysis of the relation between a variety of policy portofolio and expectation factors indicates that, the following measures shall be taken in order to form stable expectation.These measures include increasing the amount of real estate supply, adopting different macro-control measures for diverse participants in the market, publicizing the process of real estate development, perfecting the consrectution of housing security system, leading the expectation of effective and stable market in a reasonbale way.The policy implications also include that the authority should put the social welfare to the upper hand, insure the living-apartmnet and living rights, avoid the man-handling the real estate price as well as the whole market.The above measures are the necessities for healthy development of the national economy and the houseing industry.

Key words: rationalexpectation, fluctuationoftherealestate, macro-control