中国数字内容产业生命周期模型建立与阶段识别

北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2012, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (1): 67-73.

中国数字内容产业生命周期模型建立与阶段识别

（北京邮电大学经济管理学院, 北京100876）

收稿日期:2011-10-03 出版日期:2012-02-28 发布日期:2023-03-27

Life Cycle Model of DCI and Identification of Developmental Stage

(School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China)

Received:2011-10-03 Online:2012-02-28 Published:2023-03-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对中国数字内容产业在经济、社会、文化等方面的重要作用，在总结数字内容产业生命周期的一般形态后，建立了产业生命周期模型，并从产业规模、产业技术、产业组织和政府作用四方面阐述了各阶段的主要特征。最后，在搜集和分析产业发展数据的基础上，将计算判断法、经验对比法两种定性判别法与拟合曲线法相结合，通过建立龚伯兹曲线模型和修正S曲线模型，判定中国数字内容产业目前正处于生命周期的成长期，未来还将保持高速发展并逐步进入成长后期。

关键词: 数字内容产业, 产业生命周期, 龚伯兹曲线, 修正S曲线

Abstract:

Focusing on the important role of China’s digital content industry in the economy, society, culture and other aspects, and based on the summarization of the digital content industry life cycle in general form, this research established the industry life cycle model, and elaborated its main features from the aspects of industrial scale, industrial technology, industrial organization and government function Finally, in the collection and analysis of industrial development on the basis of the data, combining two kinds of qualitative methods – the calculation and judgment method and empirical method with the curve fitting method, by establishing the Gompertz-curve model and Revised S-curve model, the research thinks that digital content industry (DCI) in China is now at the developing stage and will keep high speed in the next period

Key words: digital content industry, industry life cycle, Gompertz-curve, Revised S-curve

中图分类号:

常征. 中国数字内容产业生命周期模型建立与阶段识别[J]. 北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版), 2012, 14(1): 67-73.

CHANG Zheng. Life Cycle Model of DCI and Identification of Developmental Stage[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Social Sciences Edition), 2012, 14(1): 67-73.