美国量化宽松货币政策对我国外贸的影响

北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2014, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (3): 75-82.

美国量化宽松货币政策对我国外贸的影响

北京邮电大学经济管理学院，北京100876

收稿日期:2013-12-25 出版日期:2014-06-30 发布日期:2023-03-27

Impact of US’s Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy on China’s Foreign Trade

School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China

Received:2013-12-25 Online:2014-06-30 Published:2023-03-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为研究美国4轮量化宽松货币政策对我国对外贸易的影响，首先定性分析美国量化宽松货币政策对我国对外贸易影响的4种渠道；然后建立结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型，考察每期量化宽松货币政策通过4种渠道对我国对外贸易影响的显著性和差异性；最后得出，在短期内美国量化宽松货币政策对美国本土经济的预期拉动作用使我国贸易收支情况得到改善，在长期大宗商品价格上涨对出口的抑制以及外商直接投资对进口的促进导致了我国贸易收支的恶化。

关键词: 美国量化宽松货币政策, 影响贸易渠道, 对外贸易, 结构向量自回归模型

Abstract:

To study the impact of US’s quantitative easing monetary policy on China’s foreign trade, firstly a qualitative analysis of the four channels of the impact is made, and its significance and difference of each period based on structural vector auto regression (SVAR) model is studied.The results show that in the short-term, the policy will improve China’s trade balance through promoting US economy; in the long-term, the policy deteriorates China’s trade balance through the suppression of exports caused by commodity price rising and promotion of imports caused by foreign direct investment increasing

Key words: US’s quantitative easing monetary policy, impact on trade channel, foreign trade, structural vector auto regression model

中图分类号:

于乐, 彭惠. 美国量化宽松货币政策对我国外贸的影响[J]. 北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版), 2014, 16(3): 75-82.

YU Yue, PENG Hui. Impact of US’s Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy on China’s Foreign Trade[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Social Sciences Edition), 2014, 16(3): 75-82.