关键词: 索洛余额法, 丁伯根改进方法, 技术进步率, 蒙特卡洛模拟

Abstract:  Through theoretical analysis, it is found that the main differences between Solow residual method and Tinbergen method in technical progress rate are whether there are long-term trends In Solow method, technical progress rate is a random variable with time changing, and there is no long-term trend But Tinbergen method believes that the technical progress has the long-term trend with time changing So in theory, Tinbergen method is more robust Based on theoretical analysis, Monte Carlo simulation is used to verify the results It is found that Tinbergen method and Solow residual method calculation results are similar when  technical progress doesn′t have long-term trend But when there is a long-term trend, compared with Solow residual method, the technical progress rate obtained through Tinbergen method under different simulation conditions is closer to the true value and the simulation results are more stable

Key words:  Solow residual method, Tinbergen method, technical progress rate, Monte Carlo simulation