Abstract:

To more scientifically and effectively predict the development trend of customized 3G mobile phone and provide decision-making basis for operators, this paper introduces Bass model to the diffusion study on customized 3G mobile phone, and combining the diffusion properties of customized 3G mobile phone, builds the variable contingent diffusion model Through empirical analysis and comparative analysis of Bass model, contingent diffusion model and variable contingent diffusion model, this paper discovers that the curve fitting effect of variable contingent diffusion model is the best for customized 3G mobile phone business, and variable contingent diffusion model is suitable for predication of customized 3G mobile phone users Meanwhile, it is found that major diffusion motivation of customized 3G mobile phone is internal factors, and users are affected greatly by word of mouth Therefore, major influencing factor of customized 3G mobile phone business diffusion is from word of mouth of the existing users on potential ones

Key words: 3G, customized mobile phone, Bass model, contingent diffusion model