Abstract:  Based on the macroeconomic monthly data of China from year  2007 to 2016, the seasonal adjustment of Spring Festival model is used to adjust the macroeconomic data, and the size of shadow bank is estimated with a lager caliber Structural vector autoregressive model is used to study the coupling effect between the size of shadow bank, inflation and real economic development The results show that there is a one-way Granger causality relationship between the size of shadow bank and the development of the real economy,which is, development of real economy affects the change of the size of shadow bank During a certain period of time, the development of the real economy has boosted the development of the shadow bank The size of shadow bank and inflation show Granger causality relationship with each other In the long run, inflation will have  sustained positive effectson the size of shadow bank; and in different periods, the impact of shadow bank on inflation is fluctuating, and will not last for a long time

Key words: shadow bank, CPI, HSBC PMI Index