北京邮电大学学报(社科版) ›› 2018, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (6): 97-107.doi: 10.19722/j.cnki.1008-7729.2018.0160

• 经济与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口流动视角下老龄化对经济增长的影响——来自中国省际面板数据的实证分析

  

  1. 武汉理工大学 经济学院,湖北 武汉430070
  • 收稿日期:2018-06-26 出版日期:2018-12-30
  • 基金资助:
    湖北省社科基金重大项目(2014ZD001)(2018ZD014)

Aging, Population Flow and Economics:Based on China's Provincial Panel Data

  1. School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
  • Received:2018-06-26 Online:2018-12-30

摘要: 从柯布-道格拉斯生产函数入手,分析了老龄化主要通过减少劳动力的方式对经济增长产生负效应;又利用包含人力资本的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数分析得出,老龄化有利于提高劳均实物资本的占有和提升劳均人力资本,进而有利于经济增长,说明老龄化对经济增长具有双重效应。根据理论推导的结果建立了包含人口老龄化和人口流动的实证模型,通过收集2000—2016年的省级面板数据对理论推导结果进行验证,结果表明,虽然老龄化对经济增长具有双重效应,但现阶段主要表现为负效应。研究发现,人口流动能够缓解老龄化的负作用,相对于人口流出区和流入区,老龄化的负作用在人口流动均衡区更加明显。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 人口流动, 经济增长

Abstract: The Cobb-Douglas production function is used to analyze the negative effect of population aging on economic growth by reducing labor force, and then the Cobb-Douglas production function which includes human capital, is established and it is found that population aging will benefit economic growth by improving average labor physical capital and average human capital So population aging has double effects on economic growth In the following study, an empirical model which includes population aging and population flow is constructed to verify the theoretical results by collecting the provincial panel data from the year 2000 to 2016 The research shows that population flow can alleviate the negative effect of aging Compared with the outflow area and inflow area, the negative effect of aging is more obvious in the equilibrium area of population flow

Key words: population aging, population flow, economic growth

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