关键词: 经济政策不确定性, TVP-VAR模型, 农产品贸易

Abstract: In order to systematically explore the impact of China’s economic policy uncertainty in recent years on imports and exports of agricultural products, based on monthly data on China’s import and export volume of agricultural products from January 2012 to December 2020 and China’s economic policy uncertainty index, shock response and change characteristics of imports and exports of different types of agricultural products are studied and the reasons for the impact are analyzed by using the TVP-VAR(Time Varying Parameter-Vector Auto Regression) model. The research results indicate that the uncertainty of China’s economic policies has a more obvious and direct time-variant characteristic in promoting the imports and exports of competitive agricultural products; It also has significant differences in the market impact on different agricultural products and trade commodities; The series of economic policies at different time points have a negative impact on China’s agricultural product imports and a positive impact on China’s agricultural product exports.

Key words: economic policy uncertainty, TVP-VAR model, agricultural product trade