Abstract:

In order to analyze the change of mobile market share after the reorganization, this study established the Markov chain forecasting model, constructed quadratic programming model with the actual data, and estimated transition probability matrix by Excel. Then this study analyzed the influencing factors of the market share, and found out that the market competition pattern of the three operators was gradually optimized but not changed fundamentally in the short run. They need to study the consumers’ requirements deeply to improve their market performance, and the regulators also need to change the policies to guarantee the effective competition.

Key words: mobile communintion, market share, Markov chain, forecast