金砖四国FDI与贸易关系的实证比较分析

Acta Metallurgica Sinica(English letters) ›› 2010, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (4): 61-70.

金砖四国FDI与贸易关系的实证比较分析

北京邮电大学经济管理学院，北京100876

收稿日期:2010-05-17 出版日期:2010-08-30 发布日期:2010-09-13

An Empirical Comparative Analysis of Relationship between Inward FDI
and Trade in BRIC Countries

School of Economics and Management，Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications，
Beijing 100876，China

Received:2010-05-17 Online:2010-08-30 Published:2010-09-13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国已经成为对FDI最有吸引力的前5个国家中的4个。为了探索FDI对新兴市场发展中东道国进出口贸易所产生的影响，对金砖四国引进FDI和进出口贸易的关系进行了比较研究，运用Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型与Granger因果关系检验法对1980—2008年期间引进FDI与贸易的关系进行了实证检验，结果表明金砖四国FDI与贸易之间存在明显的互补而非替代关系，巴西、中国和印度的FDI具有显著的进出口贸易创造效应，而俄罗斯、巴西和印度三国的贸易发展能进一步促进FDI流入。这一研究结果从理论上支持金砖四国未来应该坚持更加自由开放的投资和贸易政策。

关键词: 金砖四国；外国直接投资；误差修正模型；贸易创造效应

Abstract:

Brazil, Russia, India and China have become four of the top five of the most attractive countries to FDI This paper comparatively analyzes the relationship between inward FDI flows and the level of trade in BRICs, in order to explore the impact of FDI on import and export trade in emerging markets and developing host countries The empirical study is based on Johansen Co-integration test, ECM model and Granger causality test during the period from 1980 to 2008 The results confirm that the relationship between inward FDI and trade is complementary rather than substitutive Inward FDI exerts a considerable trade creation effect on export and import in Brazil, China and India, but not in Russia, and this effect is the strongest in Brazil Meanwhile, trade stimulates inward FDI in most of BRICs except China The results theoretically prove that free FDI and trade policy from BRIC countries should be continued in future

Key words: BRIC countries, foreign direct investment, error correction model, trade creation effect

中图分类号:

FT42

何菊香. 金砖四国FDI与贸易关系的实证比较分析[J]. Acta Metallurgica Sinica(English letters), 2010, 12(4): 61-70.

HE Ju-Xiang. An Empirical Comparative Analysis of Relationship between Inward FDI
and Trade in BRIC Countries[J]. Acta Metallurgica Sinica(English letters), 2010, 12(4): 61-70.