JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF POSTS AND TELECOM ›› 2020, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 7-14.doi: 10.19722/j.cnki.1008-7729.2020.0056

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Prediction Model of Consumer Value Based on Pareto/NBD

  

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing
    100876, China;2. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
    Beijing 100190, China;3. Didi (China) Technology Co., Ltd, Beijing 100193, China
  • Received:2020-03-12 Online:2020-06-30

Abstract: To improve the prediction accuracy of consumer value,based on the existing Pareto/NBD model and the supervised machine learning algorithm, an improved model is proposed, that is, the purchasing behavior data of recent sub-periods are used to predict the future purchasing frequency, which makes full use of users historical consumption information. The improved model was verified by using DiDis user consumption data, and the results show that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy significantly.

Key words: customer lifecycle value, Pareto/NBD, supervised learning model

CLC Number: