关键词: 高血压普查, 心脑血管疾病, 决策树-马尔可夫模型, 成本-效用分析

Abstract: Based on the pilot data in Henan province, the Decision Tree-Markov model is constructed to simulate the natural development process of health-disease-death of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases under the hypertension census management strategy, and the strategy is evaluated in terms of health economics according to the cost-utility analysis method. The research shows that the strategy effectively increases the proportion of healthy people, reduces the proportion of people suffering from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, and significantly reduces the mortality of patients with cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. The strategy has better effect on rural people, and although the strategy increases investment, it will reduce the cumulative cost in rural areas with severe hypertension problems, which is significantly economical. The analysis shows that the strategy is most sensitive to the annual institutional cost. In order to optimize the health economics effectiveness of this strategy, it is also necessary to improve the coverage of hypertension census in areas with low administrative level, improve the work efficiency of relevant institutions, increase clinical and drug investment, strengthen the construction of green channels and build relevant information platforms. 

Key words:  hypertension census, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, Decision Tree-Markov model, cost-utility analysis