关键词: 电信业务总量, 电信业, 全要素生产率, 增长模型, 投入产出表, 投资乘数

Abstract:

By adopting the Solow growth model and the input-output table method, the empirical analysis based on Chinese data from 1979 to 2009 and three input-output tables (1997, 2002, 2007) has shown that regarding the telecommunication industry, the contribution rate of the total factor productivity(TFP) which is now more than 40% has generally been increasing with certain fluctuations; currently, the structure of the telecommunication industrial input factors is continuously optimized and softened, and is in the window period of the contribution of TFP surpassing that of the capital inputMeanwhile, as the fundamental carrier for the information element or one kind of soft technology factor, the telecommunication industry may substitute 1/5 of capital or labor inputs, and accounts for approximately 1/4 of the contribution of all of sectors and all kinds of technological progressResearch results also confirm that China’s telecommunication industry gradually evolves from the intermediate-input sector to the final-consumption one, and has a big investment multiplier

Key words: total telecommunication service production, telecommunication industry, total factor productivity, growth model, input-output table, investment multiplier