北京邮电大学学报(社科版) ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 54-63.

• 经济与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

 投资者情绪与股票市场的非线性关系研究

  

  1. 北京邮电大学 经济管理学院,北京100876
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-21 出版日期:2017-06-30

Non-linear Effects of Investor Sentiment and Stock Market

  1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications,
    Beijing 100876, China
  • Received:2017-03-21 Online:2017-06-30

摘要: 检验投资者情绪与股票收益率之间线性关系,发现二者呈现非线性特性。在此基础上,构建结构性平滑迁移向量自回归模型(SSTAR)阐述两者非线性关系。研究表明,投资者情绪成为影响我国股票市场的重要因素。投资者情绪在牛市中对股票收益率具有显著拉动作用,且投资者展现非理性投资行为;而在熊市中对股票市场的影响表现出瞬时促进作用,以及冲击效应持续时间较短特征。最后,股票收益率对投资者情绪具有一定正向推动,但冲击持续时间和强度相对较弱。

关键词:  , 投资者情绪;股票收益率;SSTAR模型

Abstract:  The linearity between investor sentiment and stock returns is tested, and it is found that their relationship shows significant non-linear feature On this basis, structural smooth transition vector autoregressive (SSTAR) model is constructed to demonstrate the non-linear relationship The result shows that investor sentiment is the main factor affecting the stock market First of all, investor sentiment has a significant stimulating effect on the stock market in the bull market, and investors show irrational behaviors Secondly, investor sentiment has instantaneous impact on the stock market in the bear market, and this effect lasts for a short time Finally, stock returns will positively stimulate investor sentiment with short duration and weak strength

Key words: investor sentiment, stock market, SSTAR model

中图分类号: