关键词: 人口老龄化, 产业结构升级, 中介效应

Abstract: Since the 21st century, China′s ′demographic dividend′ has gradually been exhausted The population aging will inevitably influence the upgrading of industrial structure from two major directions: consumer demand and labor supply Through selecting the panel data of China′s provinces from 1995 to 2015, the impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure in eastern, central and western China and their differences are studied based on the perspective of mediating effects The empirical results show that population aging has a direct role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure in the three regions, but after adding intermediary variables such as old-age consumer demand, human capital accumulation, labor endowment, labor productivity, and the ratio of science and education, there are obvious differences in the mediating effect of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure: the net mediating effect in eastern region is positive, which is conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure; the net mediating effect in the central and western regions is negative, which hinders the upgrading of industrial structure Imbalance of the region requires the country to make top-level design, scientifically respond to the trend of population aging, formulate policies from the supply side and the demand side, and play a positive role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure due to population aging

Key words: population aging, upgrading of industrial structure, mediating effect