北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2023, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (1): 25-39.doi: 10.19722/j.cnki.1008-7729.2022.0116

• 经济与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

数字经济时代工业智能化如何影响服务出口

朱廷珺(1965—),男,甘肃镇原人,博士,教授,硕士生导师   

  1. 1.兰州交通大学 经济管理学院,甘肃 兰州730070;2.兰州财经大学 国际经济与贸易学院,甘肃 兰州730020
  • 收稿日期:2022-09-23 出版日期:2023-02-28 发布日期:2023-02-28
  • 作者简介:朱廷珺(1965—),男,甘肃镇原人,博士,教授,硕士生导师

How Industrial Intelligence Affects Service Export in Digital Economy Era

  1. 1.School of Economics and Management, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China; 
    2. School of International Economics and Trade, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou 730020, China
  • Received:2022-09-23 Online:2023-02-28 Published:2023-02-28

摘要: 将工业机器人安装数量作为反映工业智能化程度的指标,从理论和实证两个层面分析了工业智能化对服务出口的影响。理论方面,将工业机器人安装纳入Melitz异质性企业贸易模型,证明了工业机器人可以直接影响制造业出口规模,并在产业关联的角度下分析了制造业出口规模扩大对促进服务出口的重要性,这为人工智能影响服务贸易领域的研究提供了新的理论链条。实证方面,使用2009—2019年52个国家的工业机器人数据以及宏观贸易数据,实证研究发现工业智能化确实对服务出口有促进作用,对发展中国家与生产性服务业效果更加显著,在检验稳健性与处理内生性问题后结果依然稳健。机制检验表明,制造业出口规模在工业机器人影响服务出口这一机制中起正向促进中介作用。这为我国在数字经济时代推动人工智能更好地提升服务出口水平提供了重要参考。

关键词: 数字经济, 工业机器人, 产业关联, 服务出口

Abstract: Digital transformation of the economy is an important symbol of the current industrial revolution, in which artificial intelligence is the key driving force for the development of the digital economy. While promoting the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry, intelligent production also brings opportunities for expanding service exports. Taking the number of industrial robots installed as an indicator reflecting the degree of industrial intelligence, the impact of industrial intelligence on service exports is analyzed from both theoretical and empirical aspects. In terms of theory, the installation of industrial robots is included in the Melitz heterogeneous enterprise trade model, which proves that industrial robots can directly affect the export scale of the manufacturing industry, and the importance of expanding the export scale of the manufacturing industry to the promotion of service exports from the perspective of industrial linkages, which provides a new theoretical chain for the research on the impact of artificial intelligence on service trade. On the empirical side, using the industrial robot data and the macro trade data from 2009 to 2019 of 52 countries, the empirical study found that industrial intelligence did promote service exports, and had a more significant effect on developing countries and productive services. The results remained stable after testing robustness and processing endogeneity. The mechanism test showed that the export scale of manufacturing industry played a positive role in the mechanism of industrial robots influencing service exports. The results provide important reference for China to promote artificial intelligence to better improve the level of service exports in the digital economy era.

Key words: digital economy, industrial robots, industrial linkages, service exports

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