Abstract: With the continuous development of the Belt?and?Road?Initiative, Chinas trade with the countries along “Belt and Road” has become more frequent and important Based on the constant market share (CMS) model and the trade gravity model, the main influencing factors of Chinas manufacturing exports to the countries along “Belt and Road” are deeply investigated through the related data The research results show that the import demand of the countries along “Belt and Road” is an important factor to stimulate the trade scale of both sides The trade dependence of importing countries, and the common border also have significantly positive effects on Chinas manufacturing exports, while the distance between the two sides, and the tariff level of importing countries will hinder the exports Further, the measurement of Chinas manufacturing export potential to countries along “Belt and Road” reveals that China still has great export potential to Vietnam, Thailand, Russia, India and most Central and Eastern European countries This paper aims to provide reference for the construction of trade network of the Belt?and?Road?Initiative and for the improvement of the efficiency of labor division and cooperation

Key words: the Belt?and?Road?Initiative, manufacturing, CMS model, gravity model